If Trump weren’t so predictably inconsistent, all signs would be pointing towards the U.S. attacking Iran and reasonably soon.
So far, Iran has said it refuses to budge discussing any issues with the U.S. except the nuclear issue, and even then it has said it will not give up uranium enrichment for “peaceful” purposes.
For his part, Trump has said he wants Iran to not only give up any nuclear enrichment, but to also dismantle the enrichment centrifuges. In addition, he also wants the discussions to include support for Iran’s terrorist proxies and also, presumably, how Iran treats protestors.
Nevertheless, the talks have continued on Iran’s terms and Trump has said that Iran badly wants to make a deal. In short, only the insiders know what’s really happening with Trump, and even they may not fully know since Trump himself may not know either.
Does he really intend to attack Iran if they can’t reach a deal, and even if that is his intent, will the TACO label (Trump Always Chickens Out) prove to be true in the final analysis?
Furthermore, will he move the goal posts about a deal, so that he’ll agree to Iran’s terms and accept yet another nuclear agreement that everyone knows Iran intends to ignore just so he can claim a major success? With Trump’s inconsistencies, that seems just as possible as his sticking to his public tough talking.
The bottom line is we really don’t know and won’t know until it happens. About the only thing that is certain is that the U.S. is moving its military assets into position, although that could as much be for show as to be ready to attack.
That is the external part from a U.S. perspective. It turns out though that it’s actually a lot more complicated if you add Iran’s leaders’ perspective, which is based almost entirely on the issue of long-term survival. While the U.S. and Israel can undoubtedly do serious damage with bombing campaigns, unless they also add boots on the ground, they probably can’t force Khamenei and his fundamentalist Islamic regime out unless they can actually kill him, and even if they do, there’s likely another Supreme Imam waiting in the wings.
In short, it’s likely that the U.S. even with Israel’s support can’t do the one thing at the center of long-term peace in the Middle East, which is to get rid of an ideology that will spend as many oil dollars that it can on supporting terrorist movements in Lebanon, Gaza, and the Palestinian Authority to eradicate Israel.
Trump undoubtedly has to factor this into his decision. Is it worth the military effort without effecting a regime change? Of course, since Iran isn’t budging on its refusal to give up its nuclear ambitions, Trump will look weak if he doesn’t attack regardless of how rational such a decision might be.
So what’s the bottom line? In a very real way, both Iran and Trump are on a collision course based upon their own compulsions. Iran is ruled by fundamentalist Muslims who believe that Allah wants them to conquer the world to unfurl the flag of Islamic superiority, and the place for them to start is by eradicating Israel from what should be Muslim land.
It’s a religious war, plain and simple, and regardless of the consequences, the Iranian mullahs won’t agree to curtail that ambition by giving up nuclear weapons and by stopping their sponsorship of terrorist organizations attacking Israel. If that means getting hammered by U.S. and Israeli bombers, so be it, especially since they believe it’s unlikely such bombs will force them from power.
For his part, Trump put his credibility on the line by encouraging Iran’s protesters by saying that the U.S. military was locked and loaded and help was on the way. He’s continued that by threatening Iran if it doesn’t make the right kind of deal. So if he doesn’t get a meaningful agreement from Iran’s leaders, which they can’t give for their own reasons, he has little choice but to attack to avoid looking feckless and weak.
So what’s going to happen? Nobody knows for cure, but all signs are pointing to a shooting match between Iran and the U.S.
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