War absolutely sucks. No question about it. But if there were ever a regime that deserved to be bombed, it’s the Iranian mullahs who have no problems murdering thousands of their own citizens let alone the infidels in Israel and, if they could, the infidels in both Europe and the United States.
Are you getting the picture? The mullahs are a historical anachronism fighting an old-fashioned religious war against Christianity and Judaism, which is obvious to anyone who dispassionately looks at their record and pronouncements. Unfortunately, it seems that American Democrats are living in a dream world in which many would prefer that Iran’s regime continue with its murderous ways instead of Trump taking a legitimate shot at so weakening them that they collapse, but that’s a separate story.
Right now, the war has started and the major criticism is that there’s no real plan with how regime change will happen, which is Trump’s stated goal. While Trump may not initially have had a plan, there has been almost two months of planning to put together a military campaign since Trump first promised that help was on the way in early January.
The choice to attack, furthermore, almost certainly wasn’t based upon Trump’s whim, i.e. it wasn’t because of a lack of progress in negotiations with Iran. It was likely based on carefully-procured intel on Khamenei’s location, and the attack was launched when he was vulnerable. It was part of a bold and carefully developed 4-step plan.
So that’s the background to where we are today. In the first weekend of attacks, Israel and the U.S. killed Khamenei and a number of Iranian government leaders. It is clearly a major win for the U.S. and Israel, especially since it’s just the beginning of the military and other actions that they plan will lead to regime change.
The first step was to create absolute chaos inside Iran’s religious and government leaders by killing Khamenei. It may be one thing for Iran to have a theoretical secession plan. It will likely be another to implement it in the midst of daily bombing campaigns. In short, it is highly likely that the U.S. and Israel waited patiently until Khamenei was in a vulnerable location and then struck their first blows. Step one was completed.
Step 2 is to virtually wipe out Iran’s ability to launch a meaningful counter attack. Over what the U.S. plans to be a few week period, it’s likely that Israeli and U.S. military planners believe they can establish complete air superiority and virtually wipe out Iran’s ability to launch ballistic missiles. At that point, their leaders will know they’re wounded and sitting ducks, even though they’ll never admit it publicly.
Step 3 is to embolden Iran’s citizens to rise up yet again, but in a very different situation. Despite the theoretical change to a new Supreme Leader, it’s not clear that anyone will be trusted enough by the IRGC and Basij militia to use extreme violence to suppress a new round of protests, especially given the on-going threat of U.S.and Israeli retaliation.
This leads to step 4, which is convincing key leaders in the IRGC to switch their allegiance to a new government. It is a safe bet that Israel and the CIA are already making overtures to IRGC leaders they think could switch. If you think that’s far-fetched, answer how the U.S. knew where Khomenei was to take him out so easily.
In short, it’s highly likely that the U.S.and Israel are working behind the scenes to plan a new round of mass protests, but to then have key IRGC leaders switch their support so those protests essentially have protection.
If IRGC leaders know they’re wounded and sitting ducks if they keep fighting, which would be accomplished in Step 2, is it that hard to imagine a number of them going with the winners, especially since Trump has already said they would get amnesty if they switched allegiance?
Such a switch, furthermore, is hardly unique. For many years it was a key strategy in numerous battles in Japan, and was a key step that helped Ieyasu Tokugawa (remember Shogun) win the Battle of Sekigahara, which led to his becoming Shogun. Just google Kobayakawa Hideaki.
In short, you can expect that this or something similar is being planned. The U.S. has been doing this for years in multiple countries around the world, and Israel has been involved in numerous covert operations that were in the category of how did they pull that one off? Do you really think they’re leaving regime change to chance?
Will it succeed? It is, after all, a bold plan, especially since air power alone is typically not considered enough to effect regime change. So nobody really knows. But since it’s likely that Mossad and the CIA are deeply involved, don’t be surprised if it does succeed. There’s more than a reasonable chance that many members of the IRGC think of their position from a business rather than religious perspective. You can figure out the rest.
So let’s say it does succeed. What might a new government look like? We’ll leave that for the Iranians themselves with obvious support from Trump. Whatever form it takes, it will no longer support terrorism throughout the Middle East or anywhere else, and it will also join the Abraham Accords and act in a friendly manner towards Israel.
So what do the Democrats in the U.S. think about Trump’s bold move? They’re between a rock and a hard place. If they jump on the bandwagon, they’ll be promoting Trump during the mid-term elections. If they oppose his move, they’ll be supporting the murderous Iranian mullahs who promote terrorism around the globe, leaving them open to strong negative ads in the upcoming elections.
While there will undoubtedly be a number of Democrat leaders who come out about how it’s an illegal war without Congressional authorization, it’s not clear how much opposition Trump will really get, especially if the polls show that independent voters are supporting the war.
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