In my last post, I theorized that the initial strike on Iran wasn’t because Trump thought Iran wasn’t negotiating in good faith on the nuclear weapons issue, but it was because either Mossad or the CIA or both had firm intelligence that Ayatollah Khomenei was exposed, and there was a good opportunity to take him out.
I also theorized that instead of Trump entering the war without a clear end game, there was a well-constructed plan based upon first decimating Iran’s ability to respond both defensively and offensively, and then starting a citizens’ uprising that would include leaders in the IRGC, police, and military switching sides, resulting in regime change.
After only a week or so of war, that seems to be the pathway that the U.S and Israel are taking. For starters, they’ve been more successful than they may have even expected. In just one week, they:
— established air superiority over Iran,
— killed numerous leaders, including Khamenei,
— prevented Iran from naming a new Supreme Leader by destroying the chamber where such a leader was supposed to be elected, although he was elected a week later,
— put a major dent in Iran’s Navy, destroying many of their ships including torpedoing its largest destroyer,
— destroyed its main missile and drone complexes, and substantially curtailed Iran’s abilities to launch missiles and drones, and
— destroyed numerous IRGC and military facilities used for planning and coordinating both offensive and defensive operations.
Before going on, let’s make one thing clear. War absolutely sucks. It is beyond nasty, and it goes against all of our grains to see the destruction coming live to us through videos and pictures. But before sympathizing with the Iranian regime that the U.S. and Israel is systematically destroying, think about who they are.
For over 45 years, they have been calling for Death to America and Israel. If they were to get nuclear bombs, they may actually try to use one or more on Israel, killing hundreds of thousands or even millions in one action. Even without nuclear weapons, they had a strategy of encircling Israel with terrorist organizations who all would have no problem killing thousands or more Israelis if they could do it. It happened on October 7, 2023, including taking 250 people hostages.
Finally, the Iranian regime represses its own citizens who don’t comply with its edicts. Women are treated as second class citizens and required to wear head coverings. Those who resist and go out in public without such coverings are often severely beaten or worse. Religious minorities are also repressed, especially members of the Baha’i Faith, many of whom have been jailed or worse over the years.
In short, we are not talking about an even close to normal government. The regime is fighting a religious war against both Christianity and Judaism, which they believe is just. For the record, the rest of the world has long ago stopped thinking that religion is a just reason for any war. The Iranian regime is one of the last holdouts.
So before having any sympathy for the Iranian regime, consider that they are undergoing the same kind of destruction that they would carry out against both Israel and the United States, but without trying to spare any civilians. They’re the epitome of live by the sword, die by the sword.
Now for the great irony. If you focus only on reading articles and TV news in the U.S. mainstream media, you’d think that the U.S. initiated a widening war in which Iran was holding its own and striking back at not just the U.S. and Israel, but at a number of other Gulf countries.
There’s even one theory going around that Iran has the U.S. and Israel right where it wants them and is leading them into a nasty war of attrition. That’s a key part of the concern that Trump is getting the U.S. involved in a war that has a more than reasonable chance of becoming a quagmire.
The reason for all the negativity, of course, is that the Democrats and their supportive mainstream media are rooting for Trump to fail. If they support Trump’s attack against a regime that for 40 years has called for Death to America and Israel, has promoted a wall of terrorism encircling Israel, has severely repressed its own citizens, and is fighting a clearly unjust religious war, they’d be helping the Republicans in the 2026 mid-term elections.
As such, the narrowly-focused quest for power associated with regaining control of the House and the Senate is stronger than the longer-term overall interests in eliminating a major U.S. enemy and an existential threat to peace in the Middle East. Think about that for a moment.
Democrats would rather have a virulent regime continuing to conduct a religious war against the West than to support Trump eradicating them in an election year. On top of that, there’s also the impact of Trump Derangement Syndrome in which it doesn’t matter what Trump does. It has to be bad. Heck, they’d oppose Trump if he were to give Mother Teresa the American Medal of Freedom posthumously.
To understand the hypocrisy, if any Democrat president had done the same thing, the press would be filled with stories on the Iranian regime’s slaughtering 30,000+ of its own citizens, its regressive treatment of women and minority religions like the Baha’is, and of its support for terrorism against Israel and the U.S. But it was the Republican president Donald Trump who attacked Iran, so the mainstream media is focused on all the negatives.
So what’s next? There’s little doubt that the U.S. and Israel are going to continue pummeling Iran with the goal of so weakening the regime that it collapses in on itself and breaks up in chaos. There seems to be a plan to arm and encourage Kurds from Iraq and the Northern parts of Iran to attempt a coup in that part of the country.
I also believe there’s a plan being developed for a general uprising that would come after Iran’s military capability was largely destroyed and its IRGC, police, and military were in significant disarray. That plan would also include elements of the IRGC, police, and military supporting the uprising.
But then it’s also developing that Trump is considering one more step. If Iran’s citizens can’t finish off the regime themselves, Trump is considering sending in ground troops, probably with the Israelis as well, to help finish off the Iranian regime. That would have the Democrats and the mainstream media screaming about a quagmire like in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, even though the situation would be vastly different.
Such a strategy is likely several weeks or more from being implemented if needed and would only be a last resort, but it appears to be on the table. In short, Trump seems to have morphed from helping the Iranians rise up and overthrow the mullahs by themselves into making regime change the end goal of the war with the U.S. and probably Israel invading if absolutely necessary.
While reading articles in our mainstream media makes it seem that regime change is a highly risky goal that even our military planners didn’t think could happen, after just one week of war, the U.S. and Israel’s combined military machine seems to believe it’s quite possible without a long and contracted war.
So stay tuned. The war is just getting started, and it’s hard to get an accurate assessment about what’s happening because of the built in biases of the various participants.
About all we know is that the U.S..and Israel are inflicting major damage in Iran, while Iran’s counter attack has been fairly minimal and is significantly reduced in its intensity after just one week. What we don’t know is whether Iran’s capabilities are already severely degraded or whether they’re making Trump over-confident and readying a surprisingly strong counter attack.
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